With the Republicans set to take the majority in the House of Representatives on January 3rd, Kevin McCarthy’s bid for the speakership is still in doubt. With such a slim majority of 222-213, he cannot afford much dissent within the GOP to vote to give him the gavel. There are at least five Republican representatives who have publicly indicated that they will not vote for him. Several others are withholding their support as they push him for commitments on governing priorities. He needs 218 votes.

If no representative receives the required 218 votes to become Speaker of the House, then the vote goes to a second ballot. That has not happened in a century, as parties in the majority have been mostly united on who should lead.

McCarthy has been meeting with his Republican critics in the House Freedom Caucus, but he has been unable to make much progress in getting support from the Trump loyalists. One of the key demands revolves around the House rules for the new Congress.

Trump-aligned Republican representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado is demanding that Kevin McCarthy allow members to make a motion to vacate the chair, which would force a vote to get a new speaker in the event that McCarthy disappoints Trump loyalists. Republican Andy Biggs of Arizona, a House Freedom Caucus member, is one of the potential challengers to the speakership.

Most House Republicans are frustrated by the lack of support for McCarthy from the Freedom Caucus that is holding his speakership hostage. The House Minority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana is publicly supporting McCarthy’s bid for the speakership, and he believes they will ensure they get this result on January 3rd.

Kevin McCarthy’s previous bid for the House speakership came in the fall of 2015 after Republican Speaker John Boehner retired in the middle of his term due to infighting within the party. McCarthy ultimately lost the speakership bid to Paul Ryan, who remained as the Speaker of the House until 2018, when the Republicans lost the majority.

McCarthy would not be in this current position of having to negotiate with the hardliners in the party if the Republicans had won a larger House majority in the 2022 midterms. The reality is that Trump’s involvement in the primaries to nominate candidates for key House races backfired as Trump’s unpopularity carried over to the candidates that he pushed. Kevin McCarthy helped save the House majority for the Republicans by getting involved in many House races in his home state of California to nominate the best quality candidates to flip seats from Democrat to Republican.