The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Senator Mitch McConnell, has booked a staggering $141 million for advertising buys in key Senate races in this midterm election that will determine party control. This compares to the $106 million being invested by Senator Chuck Schumer’s super PAC. With the current balance of power being 50-50 in the U.S. Senate, almost all of the focus in the upcoming midterms will be on several key Senate races. The House of Representatives is not getting as much attention because it has already been widely expected for quite a while that it will easily flip back to the GOP this November.
Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire all have Senate races this year that are considered competitive. McConnell’s super PAC is investing heavily in all of these races to give the GOP a path to the Senate majority. The main hurdle the GOP has to overcome is the disconnect between Biden’s low approval ratings and the generic congressional ballot. Although Biden is historically unpopular, with an approval rating of only 38 percent, the GOP’s lead in the generic congressional ballot is only about one point. Even though the majority of Americans disapprove of Biden, that does not mean that Republicans get an automatic advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm. Many voters will not be participating in the upcoming midterms because they do not believe that their interests will be represented by either major party.
Voter turnout in midterm elections is always lower than in presidential elections. Historically, about 40 percent of registered voters actually participate in midterm elections, compared to about 50 to 60 percent during presidential elections. This suggests that a majority of Americans are apathetic to the political system because they believe that no matter who they vote for, their lives will not get any better. This has been the case for many decades.
McConnell’s goal is to reach as many voters as possible through political advertising with his super PAC. He has had success in the past in helping Republicans win many competitive Senate races that ultimately led to McConnell becoming the majority leader after the 2014 midterms. While McConnell’s approval rating is as low as Joe Biden’s, it cannot be denied that he is an effective fundraiser and political strategist who knows how to win.
The same can be said about Democratic leaders such as Schumer and Pelosi. Even though they are unpopular among progressive voters, they are effective party leaders who know how to raise money.
The two months between Labor Day and Election Day is known as the home stretch of a political campaign cycle. This is when the majority of the political ads will be hitting the airwaves, radio, and Internet. However, the effectiveness of political advertising is a different story.