The upcoming midterm elections are beginning to closely mirror 2014’s red wave in terms of polling patterns. In 2014, the polls showed a relatively close battle for control of the House and Senate up until the final month of the campaign when a late-breaking wave went heavily in favor of the Republican party. There was a dramatic shift in the overall national environment in the month of October, which is also happening today.

The 2022 midterm elections are following historical trends, which signals a significant loss of seats for the president’s party. Independent voters are swinging heavily toward Republicans and are responsible for fueling the predicted red wave. Additionally, Republicans continue to increase their Hispanic support as the party’s blue-collar appeal has been helping the Republican Party with minority voters across the board.

As the economy remains the top issue in the country for most voters, Republicans are benefitting from the fact that the current economic pain is occurring under the watch of a Democratic president, House, and Senate. The fact that the New York governor’s race is now even in question for the incumbent Democrat, Kathy Hochul, should be a major warning sign for Democrats to brace for impact all across the United States.

At this point, there is not enough time left before Election Day for the national narrative to shift back in favor of Democrats. The issue of abortion is not among the top concerns for voters as liberals were hoping it would be. Inflation continues to hurt the poor and middle class at a rate not seen in 40 years. Nearly 70 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it is not surprising to see the economy as the most important issue as usual. The increase in prices of everyday goods, especially gas, can be the entire ballgame for people who are barely getting by in today’s economy.

When it comes to inflation, no serious economist denies that a large and rapid increase in government spending can lead to an abnormally high increase in the cost of living. The trillions of dollars in economic stimulus from the federal government since the beginning of the pandemic has been the major driver of hyperinflation. This has caused the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates, which has inflicted even more economic pain.

It is simply not a good year to be running for office as a Democrat. Not only have the House and Senate moved increasingly out of reach for Democrats, but they are also on track to lose several governorships. Republicans are on track to pick up governorships in Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. This would give the GOP a 30-20 advantage in terms of U.S. governors.

After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, many political analysts assumed it would lead to a historic Democratic victory in the midterms. However, this election seems to be following historical midterm trends, which is almost always bad news for the president’s party.