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The Likely Split-Ticket Results

Erik Sofranko

Posted on September 25, 2022 01:34

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The upcoming midterm election may have many split decisions in swing state races.

Polling data for the upcoming midterm elections indicates that voters in several key states will be casting split-ticket ballots. Split-ticket voting is when a voter in an election votes for candidates from different parties for different offices. This year will likely see many states have different results for Governor and Senate races in terms of political party victory. Candidate quality plays a major role in electability in statewide races.

New Hampshire’s incumbent Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan has a nearly 10-point lead in her re-election bid, according to Real Clear Politics polling data. However, incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu also has a large lead of nearly 20 points in his re-election bid. There are many Democrats in New Hampshire who like Sununu’s bipartisanship, which is why many of them cross party lines to vote for him.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro is running away with the Governor’s race, while the Senate race is much closer. Democrat Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is sinking quickly in the polls against Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Senate race, which means Pennsylvania will likely have a split-ticket result.

Wisconsin’s incumbent Democrat Governor Tony Evers is slightly favored to win re-election, while incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is slightly favored to win his reelection bid against his far-left Democrat challenger Mandela Barnes. Johnson had originally stated he would not seek a third term, but with the current 50-50 Senate, he wants to use his advantage of incumbency to help keep the seat in GOP control.

In Kansas, incumbent Democrat Governor Laura Kelly is also slightly favored to win re-election. However, incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran is the heavy favorite in his re-election bid.

Colorado’s incumbent Democrat Governor Jared Polis is likely to win a second term, with polls showing him ahead by double digits. However, the Senate race is much closer, with incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet only a few points ahead of Republican challenger Joe O’Dea. Mitch McConnell’s super PAC is investing heavily in this race in hopes of creating as many paths as possible to the Senate majority.

In Arizona, the campaign to succeed two-term incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey has the Republican Phoenix TV news anchor Kari Lake as the heavy favorite. Additionally, her Democratic opponent Katie Hobbs’ campaign has been a horror show as she frequently hides from reporters.

However, in the Senate race to officially fill the seat of late Republican Senator John McCain, the Democrat astronaut Mark Kelly is currently polling ahead of the Republican nominee Blake Masters.

Split-ticket voting results show that there are many Republican and Democrat voters who are willing to cross party lines with their votes when they focus on candidate quality above political party. This happens in both presidential and midterm elections in many states. This should be an incentive for anyone seeking elected public office to strive for running campaigns based on integrity and optimism to win as many voters as possible.

Erik Sofranko

Posted on September 25, 2022 01:34

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